25 years of experience makes me say that 8-) Unless you're using a temper meter, you're not going to be able to say with any certainty if you're tempered or not, or to what degree you're tempered. Crystalline sugars will only vary in moisture by a few %'s max, so you're unlikely to get a significant moisture contribution from them, and even if you did, it's going to give you rheology problems instead of temper problems. Unless you've got a 3rd variable that you didn't mention (ie oils of a different type - nuts, excess milk fats, etc) being added - it's almost assuredly a tempering problem. Thermocouples drift or go bad on those units all the time. What worked just fine yesterday may no longer work today if you're experiencing drift in a thermocouple.
Post your exact recipe here and we'll be able to troubleshoot more effectively. But it's tempering.